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Roadduck99


Bellhorn, OBP Freak

Soon after Theo Epstein was hired as general manager of the Boston Red Sox in late 2002, one thing became apparent: Theo had a taste for undervalued hitters. Specifically, Epstein seemed to favor evaluating a batter's worth by on-base percentage (OBP) rather than the traditional measurement of batting average. His acquisitions during the off season - 1B/OF Kevin Millar, 1B/DH David Ortiz, 2B Todd Walker, 3B Bill Mueller, and DH/"OF" Jeremy Giambi - all came at a reasonable cost, and all shared an ability to reach base at a rate that exceeded the "average" major league batter. Equally telling was Theo's undisguised attempt to trade the hacktastic Shea Hillenbrand who, despite a decent batting average, would not take a walk (his career high is 25) and therefore suffered in the OBP department.

This strategy was obviously a solid one. Millar and Walker had solid seasons (if unspectacular by their own standards), while Mueller with league leading .326 BA (and, more importantly, a .398 OBP, 6th in the AL), and Ortiz (.369 OBP, 31 HR) surprised everyone with breakout seasons. The Red Sox posted a major league-best .360 OBP, with Manny Ramirez (league-leading .427) and Trot Nixon (.398, 6th) joining Mueller in the top 10. The Red Sox scored 961 runs, or nearly half a run per game better than the runner-up Toronto Blue Jays.

For all the success, there was one glaring failure in the system. Jeremy Giambi was a disaster at the plate in an injury-riddled season. Giambi had always combined patience at the plate with power, resulting in impressive OBP and Slugging Percentages (SLG) despite a fairly pedestrian batting average. This patience was manifested in a high number of walks (one every 6.75 plate appearances in his career - contrast to Hillenbrand, who walks once every 26 times up!) and a high number of strikeouts (once every five times up), along with one of the highest pitch/plate appearance averages in the majors. This system failed for Giambi in 2003 as he frustrated Sox fans with a steady stream of strolls back to the dugout, shoulders slumped, having struck out without ever swinging at a decent pitch (one K every 3.7 times up in 2003). All of the other players mentioned above manage to put the bat on the ball and post reasonable K rates compared to Giambi.

So, a lesson learned, right? No more watch-a-lot-of-pitches-before-swinging-and-missing types, right? Not so fast. In the offseason, Epstein went out and acquired Mark Bellhorn. Bellhorn is a lot like Jeremy Giambi (Bellhorn actually has both walked and struck out more frequently than Little G, as unlikely as that sounds), with one glaring exception - Bellhorn has no power. (OK, Bellhorn has a much better understanding of what the fielder's glove is for, unlike Giambi who regarded fielding as an abstract concept beyond his own comprehension, so that's two differences). Other than his seeming breakout season of 2002, when he homered 27 times for the Chicago Cubs, Bellhorn has never exceeded six home runs in a season, and he only managed one extra base hit (a double) in nearly 90 plate appearances at Coors Field last season - a rate that would put Neifi Perez to shame. What is Theo thinking here?

Well, whatever it is, so far so good it would seem. Bellhorn is doing just what one might expect - posting a low batting average, but a high OBP and even higher strikeout rates. Bellhorn is chasing Frank Thomas for the AL lead in walks, and despite a lowly .233 batting average, Bellhorn is 15th in the AL with a .392 OBP. Nobody in the top 57 in OBP have a lower batting average than Bellhorn. Meanwhile, Bellhorn leads the AL with 51 K's. As a result, he has seen the most pitches in the league, averaging 4.32/plate appearance. The high strikeout rate bothers some, but at least he's not hitting into rally-killing DPs (only one this season), and his hitting has been timely enough to produce 26 RBI, good for fourth on the team. Bellhorn also leads the team with 29 runs scored. His has been a leading offensive contributor for a team missing Nomar Garciaparra and Trot Nixon that has had to rely on the (thus far) weak bats of Pokey Reese and Gabe Kaplar in their absence.

The Red Sox offense hasn't been as strong as it was last season, but with the improved pitching it hasn't needed to be. Mark Bellhorn wasn't signed to play every day and bat second in the lineup, but he has been effective in that role, with adequate defense at second base to go with adequate offensive production - offensive production driven by walks and on-base percentage.

Note: Statistical information used in this article was gathered from the readily available stats at ESPN.com, MLB.com and Baseball-Reference.com Please also visit Joe's baseball weblog, specializing in Portland Sea Dogs talk, at http://joesseablog.blogspot.com/

Read Part Two Of This Column


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